QMJHL Thoughts Explosion

Image from Rogers Sportsnet

Tons of things have gone down in the last week, so I’ll try to knock down some of the key topics all at once.

First off, Wednesday night kicks off a run of four games in five days for the Drummondville Voltiguers in the Maritimes, meaning Sean Couturier is in town. My only chance to see him live was at the Subway Super Series in Saint John in November, so I’m excited to be catching him in four games. The Volts visit the Screaming Eagles on Wednesday night, followed by an exciting back-to-back against the Saint John Sea Dogs on Friday and Saturday nights, and a matinee in Moncton Sunday. Just call it “Cou-Tour-ier 2011”.

Not entirely shocked that Couturier is ranked second among North American skaters by Central Scouting. His numbers are still great, but he hasn’t dominated the Q maybe as much as expected. Part of that can be attributed to a bout with mono that deprived him of training camp. He really turned it on late last season to take the league scoring title; he’s on pace to finish 3 points below last year in 10 fewer games played. His World Junior performance was average, certainly nothing to solidify him as the top prospect, obviously. He was a solid presence throughout the tournament, making strong defensive plays and creating some offense. Nothing spectacular, but he hardly had a terrible tournament.

Talk about the benefits of playing for a stacked & heavily scouted team. Nine Sea Dogs made the cut, plus Guillaume Cloutier who was traded last week. The scouts came for the Big Four: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nathan Beaulieu, Tomas Jurco and Zack Phillips, and the secondary players enjoyed the benefits. Ryan Tesink, Scott Oke, Aidan Kelly, Gabriel Bourret and Jason Cameron are all role players on the Sea Dogs, but manage to be ranked (and ranked generously in some cases) due to plenty of scouts in attendance at each game. I’d venture a guess that MAYBE half of those players would be ranked if they played in Baie-Comeau or Rouyn-Noranda, and certainly not as high.

Great to see Jonathan Huberdeau ranked 4th among North American skaters with the beat down he’s been laying on the Q this season. While I’d be a little surprised to see him actually go in the top-10, I think somewhere in the middle of the first round is likely. Early in the season I thought he’d have been somewhere in the mid-20s. Interesting to note that Zack Phillips, who was ranked ridiculously low in the domestic rankings in the fall (11th in the Q) was at 12th among all North American skaters. Higher than I expected; same goes for Nathan Beaulieu. He’s been hot and cold in the games I’ve seen this year. He can make some excellent plays, particularly offensively, but his decision making needs serious improvement if he’s to earn his keep as the 2nd best North American defenseman in the draft. Logan Shaw was ranked much higher than I expected at 52. He might be a solid late-round project type of guy, but I’d be shocked if he went any earlier than the 5th or 6th round. Also wondering where Olivier Archambault may end up being taken; I haven’t seen much of him, but from what I have, the kid has a lot of skill.

I really like the moves made by Saint John at the deadline. The addition of Mathieu Corbeil could end up being a brilliant one. He’s had a terrible year in Halifax and seems to have little confidence, but I’ve seen a number of games where he stands on his head and still loses because the Mooseheads are terrible. He’ll split time with Jacob De Serres for the rest of the regular season, likely take a seat for the playoffs, and if his confidence returns for next season, the Sea Dogs might be as good as unstoppable.

I’m a little surprised Montreal didn’t go all in for another superstar player to make a run this year. Louis Leblanc is gone next season, so it’s now or never. Even without that superstar, the addition of Viktor Hertzberg gives them a great top-6 forward group, to go with a few standout defensemen and a solid kicker in JF Berube. You have to like that team as a favourite heading into the playoffs.

Gatineau’s deal for Philip-Michael Devos came as a bit of a surprise to me. Gatineau’s been hot lately but didn’t really seem like a team that was going to be gunning for it, at least not this hard. They gave up a massive part of their future to get the league’s scoring leader, so they’d better hope they make a deep playoff run.

I’m more than a little concerned with the direction the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles are heading in. This isn’t to say they did poorly at the trade deadline; they actually got great returns on Viktor Hertzberg and Pier-Antoine Dion. My worries revolve around the comments from the man steering the ship. Mario Durocher had said he wanted to have a team that would make the playoffs this year and contend next year, and of course, they’re also bidding on next year’s Memorial Cup. Obviously those deals don’t help them for this year, and those comments combined with the rumours floating around make it seem likely that some of those high draft picks are going back to their respective teams for 19- and 20-year olds at the draft. By that time the Memorial Cup will have already been awarded (hint: not to Cape Breton), the Eagles still won’t have a team that can win next year, and to achieve all that, they’ll have let some great building blocks slip through their fingers. If this team was going to have any shot at the Memorial Cup, it should have been selling off assets last year to build toward next year. Instead it looks like they’re going to be in a buyer’s mindset for three seasons longer than they should have been.

I’ll likely report back on Cou-Tour-ier 2011 sometime next week. That phrase is trademarked now, by the way.

Roy Returns, Represents

It has been, and will be, a couple of eventful days for Olivier Roy. He made his return to Cape Breton Sunday afternoon, for the first time as a member of the visiting team, and backstopped his Acadie-Bathurst Titan to a win over the Screaming Eagles. Roy played (spectacularly) in Sydney for the last three seasons before being dealt in the off-season. The Eagles visited Bathurst earlier this season, only to be shut down as Roy earned his 100^th career win, and it seemed that another deflating result was on the way in Roy’s Cape Breton homecoming, with him sitting on a goose egg until about 9 minutes left in the game. He stopped 23 of 25 shots in the 4-2 victory.

On top of coming away with the win, he also got a warm reception from the crowd of 3,363 at Centre 200. I missed the pre-game, but as I understand it, he got an ovation when he was announced as the starting goaltender. Deservedly so, as the audience recognized the outstanding work of a goalie that stood on his head to deliver wins that the Eagles had no business collecting over the course of his time there. He got another (relatively) loud ovation when he was named 2^nd star, though the crowd had thinned out considerably as the game was delayed for penalties to be sorted out with three minutes to go and the home team down 4-1.

Next up for Olivier Roy: Buffalo, New York. Hockey Canada will name the selection camp roster for the World Juniors Monday and Roy will be at camp, he’ll make the cut, and he’ll be the starter as Canada seeks to reclaim its spot at the top of the podium. For Eagles fans, it’ll be great to watch him dazzle on the international stage as he did in the black and gold for three seasons. Canada will get to discover the secret that we’ve known for three years; the goalie factory in Cape Breton has produced another beauty. The sting will come when Roy shuts down the Russians or kicks out four scoring chances on an American powerplay, and Gord Miller utters the phrase, “Olivier Roy of the Acadie-Bathurst Titan.” Watching Roy reach the peak of his junior career representing the colours of another club will be bittersweet, but that’s no reason to not be damned proud of him. And a gold medal sure wouldn’t hurt.

An Ode to Olivier

You know when you have that one favourite player, the one that would make you sick to your stomach to see in another team’s colours? I remember when Alex Steen was traded to St. Louis – I loved the guy, hated to see him go. I feel like it’ll be a looooong season for many Cape Breton Screaming Eagles fans in that regard.

One of the things that always screws me up about the QMJHL is some of the trades. You have to pay attention to every single deal or you can get lost. Olivier Roy, probably the best goalie in the league, was essentially traded by Cape Breton to Lewiston for a pair of 2nd round picks, which makes zero sense on its own, especially when he was flipped to Bathurst the next day for a huge package including the 1st overall pick in the June draft. Given the nature of junior hockey, these things happen – Roy was essentially future considerations, so the Eagles could take a run with him and Jacob Lagace, who came over mid-season, and then unload Roy after that run (which scored them one post-season win against the eventual champs) back to Lewiston.

Olivier Roy was, to put it lightly, a sick monster for the Eagles for three seasons. He came in as a 16-year old, ran the train on the league and won rookie of the year, and was named to the CHL’s all-rookie team. He was an instant fan favourite, something that is easy to see now that he’s gone. He put together some incredible performances. His numbers may not support the beastly status I’m giving him, but he had the ability to take over a game and steal it. He had to on many occasions – the Eagles weren’t exactly a stacked team in his time there. Good players, yes, but they won games with a hard-nosed, hard-working mindset rather than one of finesse. They’ve always been the type of team that you cheer for, because they have heart and play a complete game, and their goaltender was the root of that.

Roy put another notch in his belt, another in his list of accomplishments in this league, on Sunday. After earning 94 wins in his three seasons with the Eagles, he recorded win number one hundred at “home”… against the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles. He’s only the sixth goalie in league history to do so. By the end of the season, he’ll have the all-time shutout record, and 2nd place on the wins list, both accomplished, as win 100 was, wearing Titan colours. But in the eyes of Eagles fans, Roy’s junior home will always be Cape Breton, where he’ll soon become another name rattled off when talking about Cape Breton as a goalie factory, along with Marc-Andre Fleury and Ondrej Pavelec. Why he slipped to the Oilers in round five of the draft, I don’t know. I’m no talent scout, and certainly not for goalies, but this kid has something special, and it won’t be long before that becomes widely apparent.

He’s going to start for Canada at the World Juniors in Buffalo this year; a year too late, in my opinion, and in hindsight I’m sure many will agree. And even after that remarkable achievement against their own boys, and even after his return home on November 28th with his new teammates, the most heart wrenching time for Eagles fans may just begin on Boxing Day. It’s reminiscent of the story of another Roy; Halladay. When Olivier Roy pulls off an incredible post-to-post display of acrobatics, the announcers will remind us that he’s representing the Acadie-Bathurst Titan. If the team is good enough (because we sure as hell know he is) to return Canada to its golden glory in Buffalo, he won’t be accepting his medal as a member of the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles. And you’d best believe that’s going to sting.

I’m guilty of not seeing enough of Olivier Roy in the flesh during his time with the Eagles. I got to a few games, sure, and I certainly admired his work from a distance, but when he and the Titan roll into the Centre 200 on November 28th, I’ll be there, showing my appreciation for a lifetime Eagle, regardless of whatever achievements lay on the horizon with other teams.

Handicapping the 2012 Memorial Cup Host

Earlier today, the QMJHL surprised no one by announcing the teams that have put themselves up for consideration to host the 2012 MasterCard Memorial Cup. Cape Breton, Halifax, Saint John and Shawinigan had all been expected to bid for the tournament, and there was no last-minute dark horse to throw everyone off. So as it stands, there’s a three-out-of-four chance that the Memorial Cup will return to the Maritimes. Looking at the Q’s hosting history since 2000, that makes sense; it’s been hosted by Halifax (2000), Quebec (2003), Moncton (2006) and Rimouski (2009), alternating between the Maritimes and Quebec each year. But a three-out-of-four chance is basic stuff; what are the real odds?

There are a number of factors that go into a successful Memorial Cup bid, including things that I can’t rightly determine like marketing and financial plans. Among the things I can look at are the quality of the team, arena, and experience hosting previous events; that adds up to 50% of the criteria and can make or break a team’s bid.

One of the easiest things to determine is the quality of the team, and an easy measuring stick is the NHL Entry Draft. Let’s look at the most recent hosts, the Brandon Wheat Kings. The Wheaties obviously boasted two top picks from the previous draft, as Brayden Schenn and Scott Glennie were chosen 5th and 8th, respectively, in the 2009 draft. They formed a top line along with Matt Calvert, a 5th round pick in 2008. Toni Rajala, a 2009 4th rounder, also added some scoring. The blueline had a pair of 2008 2nd rounders in Colby Robak and Travis Hamonic. In goal was Jake De Serres, a 3rd rounder in ’08. Keep in mind, Hamonic and De Serres were acquired mid-season, after Brandon was already awarded the tournament. So the main core group of the host team was made up of a pair of top-10 picks, two 2nd rounders, a 3rd, a 4th, and a 5th. They also had draft-eligible players in Michael Ferland and Mark Stone, who went in the 5th and 6th rounds, respectively, in June.

With the 2011 Draft still months away, and scouting information tough to find, along with the QMJHL website being in complete shambles, it’s tough to determine exactly what the composition of any one team will be, come the spring of 2012, but let’s have a go at it. And hell, let’s throw some betting odds down while we’re at it.

Cape Breton Screaming Eagles – Odds: 25-1

The Screaming Eagles have been a model of consistency in the league for a while now. The team has won 40 games in 6 of its last 7 seasons, including the last 5 straight. That streak will surely fall this year as they’re poised for a tough season. Captain Morgan Ellis was the only Eagles product drafted in June, in the 4th round by the Habs. The team will rely largely on over-agers Taylor MacDougall and Stephen Horyl this season, so needless to say they’ll be long gone come 2012. They have a few draft eligible players for 2011 but nothing overly notable. Logan Shaw was a high pick in the 2008 Q draft, but, unless he breaks out in a big way, doesn’t figure to be a game-changer going forward. Unless they pick up some beauties in the Q draft in June that can make a big impact right away, their hopes of contending for the title next year, and thus hosting the Memorial Cup, are faint. Their arena seats 4,600, and even after renovations that bring that total to 5,000, it’s still the smallest among the bidders. The long-awaited addition of a video scoreboard is a plus, but it’s not enough, as much as I’d love to see the tournament on the Island.

Shawinigan Cataractes – Odds: 10-1

The Cataractes had six players drafted into the NHL in 2009, including two in the first 2 rounds, and could have been set up beautifully for a bid if the Q were hosting this year rather than next… that is, if they kept those players. Dave Labrecque is the only player from that draft that remains on Shawinigan’s roster. Their only 2010 draftee was Michael Bournival, a 3rd round selection. There hasn’t been much hype about Shawinigan players for the upcoming draft; at a glance, the only ones that stand out are three players chosen in the 1st round of the 2009 Q draft: Yannick Veilleux, Jonathan Racine and Dillon Donnelly. One can assume they’ll be primed for a run in 2012, but they’re yet to break out. Shawinigan’s new arena is one thing it has going for it, with seating for about 5,200. By comparison, Brandon’s arena had capacity for just over 6,000. As for past events, they hosted the Memorial Cup back in 1985, as well as one of last year’s Subway Super Series games between the QMJHL All-Stars and a Russian squad. They’ve also retired Patrick Lalime’s number, which has to be a bad sign when trying to host a playoff tournament.

Halifax Mooseheads – Odds: 4-1

The Mooseheads should have a solid enough team by the time the tournament rolls around. Elite? Maybe not, but definitely very strong. The back end figures to be held down by Mathieu Corbeil in net, a 4th rounder this past June, along with fellow 2010 draftees Konrad Abeltshauser (6th rd) and Sawyer Hannay (7th rd) on the blueline. Add in Garrett Clarke, a talented-if-undisciplined defenseman, and forward Gabriel Desjardins, and you have a couple of players that could be drafted in the 3rd/4th round range come June. Darcy Ashley and Brent Andrews are also talented forwards that should be selected this year. But the real focal point once the 2012 Memorial Cup rolls around, if Halifax is there, would be Czech phenom Martin Frk, an early contender to go first overall in 2012. Luca Ciampini wouldn’t be far behind, either. The Mooseheads could be set up well as a host; obviously their arena is the best of the bunch with a capacity for over 10,000 spectators. The hosting history segment could possibly work against them, though. Obviously they have a good track record with events such as the World Juniors and World Championships, but they also hosted the Memorial Cup only back in 2000. It’s only been to three other Q markets since then, and I can only imagine the backlash if it went back so soon. It wouldn’t be an entirely shocking development, and if Halifax were poised to have the best team on paper in the spring of 2012, I think they’d get it. But they won’t be the best.

Saint John Sea Dogs – Odds: 2-1

Saint John easily has to be head and shoulders above the other three bidders in, at least, team quality. A pair of Sea Dogs were chosen in June: Stanislav Galiev (3rd rd) and Stephen MacAulay (6th rd), along with Steven Anthony, a 7th rounder in 2009, who could return as an over-ager next season. Then you throw three more potential stars into the forward mix, with Jonathan Huberdeau and Tomas Jurco likely being selected in the 1st or 2nd rounds in 2011, and Zach Phillips probably in the 2nd or 3rd round, and you have a mighty potent offense set up. Then there’s Nathan Beaulieu, who drew rave reviews from the research and development camp a few weeks back, to man the point. It’s expected that his name will be called out in the first round as well. Their 6,200 seat arena added a video scoreboard over the summer, and will host the Subway Super Series in November, after hosting it two years ago as well. It seems like everything is coming up Sea Dogs, and it appears that it will continue on that path right up until they’re announced as 2012 MasterCard Memorial Cup hosts in April. That’s what I’d bet on, at least.

The Return

Well hello there. I’ve dusted off the ol’ blog for the first post in a long, long time. I’m hoping that this marks the end of my inactive (lazy) streak.

So first, I’ll tell you a bit about myself. I’m a 20-year old from Cape Breton, recently graduated from college and working full-time at a radio station in my hometown. The end goal here is to incorporate my two passions: broadcasting and hockey. How, and when, remains to be seen. I’ve donned the alias of everyone’s favourite Czech defenseman with a heart condition who put the Leafs in position to tie the last playoff game they played. Which was 6 years ago. Meaning I went through all of high school and college with no Leafs playoff games. Hold me.

Anyway, with the information I’ve given here and the things I’ve tweeted, it would take about 5 minutes to figure out who I am, not like I wouldn’t tell anyone who asked. The nickname is just to separate my (lacking to this point) blog-type things from my real work.

My hope is to post here regularly from now on, about anything hockey… my views on anything happening in the NHL to things that are going on in the QMJHL, which I plan to cover a lot this season. And to ensure that, I spent two hundy on an online package that gives me access to every Q game this season, plus playoffs and archives. There’s no motivator quite like spending a boatload of money on something.
So on the topic of the Q, I’ll throw out some predictions based on my limited knowledge. See, despite being tabbed by PPP to write a weekly CHL update because of my Q-League Leafs prospect tweets, I don’t really know the Q that well. I know the better players and teams, but not very in-depth. That will change this year. (PS: I likely won’t be contributing those CHL updates this season, unless the Leafs increase their number of Q prospects to one, as I know little about the OHL/WHL and certainly less than a number of other PPP contributors.)

These predictions are based on some knowledge of a few teams and then guesses, some educated and some not, on the rest. Enjoy.

Maritimes:

1. Saint John
2. Acadie-Bathurst
3. PEI
4. Moncton
5. Halifax
6. Cape Breton

Telus East:

1. Rimouski
2. Quebec
3. Lewiston
4. Chicoutimi
5. Vicoriaville
6. Baie-Comeau

Telus West:

1. Montreal
2. Drummondville
3. Gatineau
4. Shawinigan
5. Val-d’Or
6. Rouyn-Noranda

Anyone who knows the Q will probably look at these and think I’m on the crack. I’ve spent the last few weeks reading all I can about the league and my knowledge is still minimal, especially outside the Maritimes division. I wasn’t going to do predictions to save embarrassment, but I figured, what the hell. Sometimes with predictions, the less you know, the better. And hopefully this time next year I can make much more educated picks.

I’m inclined to think it will be Rouyn-Noranda and Cape Breton out of the playoffs this year. As for the champ? It’s a tough call between Saint John and Montreal. The Juniors have the best player in the league. Saint John has a great crop of talented kids but lost some firepower from last year. My gut is that the Sea Dogs rep the Q at the Memorial Cup. Even if they don’t, they ought to next year. If there’s any justice in this world, the 2012 Memorial Cup unfolds at Harbour Station. And if by chance they don’t get hosting duties, their team is positioned better than any other in the Q to win the championship next season.

From what I can tell, this is as good a year as any to get interested in the Q. One of the players projected as a potential first overall pick in June, Sean Couturier, plays for Drummondville. Montreal scored themselves the player who has to be the odds-on favourite for the league scoring title when they snagged Louis Leblanc from Harvard. The Saint John Sea Dogs boast four guys who will all be picked in the first two rounds of the draft, probably 2 or 3 in the first round, in Jonathan Huberdeau, Nathan Beaulieu, Tomas Jurco and Zack Phillips. And looking ahead to 2012, Halifax has a couple of potential high picks in Marty Frk and Luca Ciampini, both of whom scored their first Q-League goals tonight, about 30 seconds apart.

There are more great storylines this year than I can remember there ever being in the past. Maybe that’s because I didn’t pay enough attention to the Q before this year. That will change from now on.