QMJHL Thoughts Explosion

Image from Rogers Sportsnet

Tons of things have gone down in the last week, so I’ll try to knock down some of the key topics all at once.

First off, Wednesday night kicks off a run of four games in five days for the Drummondville Voltiguers in the Maritimes, meaning Sean Couturier is in town. My only chance to see him live was at the Subway Super Series in Saint John in November, so I’m excited to be catching him in four games. The Volts visit the Screaming Eagles on Wednesday night, followed by an exciting back-to-back against the Saint John Sea Dogs on Friday and Saturday nights, and a matinee in Moncton Sunday. Just call it “Cou-Tour-ier 2011”.

Not entirely shocked that Couturier is ranked second among North American skaters by Central Scouting. His numbers are still great, but he hasn’t dominated the Q maybe as much as expected. Part of that can be attributed to a bout with mono that deprived him of training camp. He really turned it on late last season to take the league scoring title; he’s on pace to finish 3 points below last year in 10 fewer games played. His World Junior performance was average, certainly nothing to solidify him as the top prospect, obviously. He was a solid presence throughout the tournament, making strong defensive plays and creating some offense. Nothing spectacular, but he hardly had a terrible tournament.

Talk about the benefits of playing for a stacked & heavily scouted team. Nine Sea Dogs made the cut, plus Guillaume Cloutier who was traded last week. The scouts came for the Big Four: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nathan Beaulieu, Tomas Jurco and Zack Phillips, and the secondary players enjoyed the benefits. Ryan Tesink, Scott Oke, Aidan Kelly, Gabriel Bourret and Jason Cameron are all role players on the Sea Dogs, but manage to be ranked (and ranked generously in some cases) due to plenty of scouts in attendance at each game. I’d venture a guess that MAYBE half of those players would be ranked if they played in Baie-Comeau or Rouyn-Noranda, and certainly not as high.

Great to see Jonathan Huberdeau ranked 4th among North American skaters with the beat down he’s been laying on the Q this season. While I’d be a little surprised to see him actually go in the top-10, I think somewhere in the middle of the first round is likely. Early in the season I thought he’d have been somewhere in the mid-20s. Interesting to note that Zack Phillips, who was ranked ridiculously low in the domestic rankings in the fall (11th in the Q) was at 12th among all North American skaters. Higher than I expected; same goes for Nathan Beaulieu. He’s been hot and cold in the games I’ve seen this year. He can make some excellent plays, particularly offensively, but his decision making needs serious improvement if he’s to earn his keep as the 2nd best North American defenseman in the draft. Logan Shaw was ranked much higher than I expected at 52. He might be a solid late-round project type of guy, but I’d be shocked if he went any earlier than the 5th or 6th round. Also wondering where Olivier Archambault may end up being taken; I haven’t seen much of him, but from what I have, the kid has a lot of skill.

I really like the moves made by Saint John at the deadline. The addition of Mathieu Corbeil could end up being a brilliant one. He’s had a terrible year in Halifax and seems to have little confidence, but I’ve seen a number of games where he stands on his head and still loses because the Mooseheads are terrible. He’ll split time with Jacob De Serres for the rest of the regular season, likely take a seat for the playoffs, and if his confidence returns for next season, the Sea Dogs might be as good as unstoppable.

I’m a little surprised Montreal didn’t go all in for another superstar player to make a run this year. Louis Leblanc is gone next season, so it’s now or never. Even without that superstar, the addition of Viktor Hertzberg gives them a great top-6 forward group, to go with a few standout defensemen and a solid kicker in JF Berube. You have to like that team as a favourite heading into the playoffs.

Gatineau’s deal for Philip-Michael Devos came as a bit of a surprise to me. Gatineau’s been hot lately but didn’t really seem like a team that was going to be gunning for it, at least not this hard. They gave up a massive part of their future to get the league’s scoring leader, so they’d better hope they make a deep playoff run.

I’m more than a little concerned with the direction the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles are heading in. This isn’t to say they did poorly at the trade deadline; they actually got great returns on Viktor Hertzberg and Pier-Antoine Dion. My worries revolve around the comments from the man steering the ship. Mario Durocher had said he wanted to have a team that would make the playoffs this year and contend next year, and of course, they’re also bidding on next year’s Memorial Cup. Obviously those deals don’t help them for this year, and those comments combined with the rumours floating around make it seem likely that some of those high draft picks are going back to their respective teams for 19- and 20-year olds at the draft. By that time the Memorial Cup will have already been awarded (hint: not to Cape Breton), the Eagles still won’t have a team that can win next year, and to achieve all that, they’ll have let some great building blocks slip through their fingers. If this team was going to have any shot at the Memorial Cup, it should have been selling off assets last year to build toward next year. Instead it looks like they’re going to be in a buyer’s mindset for three seasons longer than they should have been.

I’ll likely report back on Cou-Tour-ier 2011 sometime next week. That phrase is trademarked now, by the way.

QMJHL Trade Period Musings

The floodgates are about to open on the QMJHL trading period, and an interesting one it will be. This is where the contenders will be definitively separated from the pretenders, but with the Q hosting the Memorial Cup next year, teams will be hesitant to hamstring themselves for the future, because a finals appearance in 2012 may be all that’s needed for a berth in the Mem Cup. So, some random thoughts as things start to ramp up:

Montreal could be the team to watch over the next couple of weeks. Louis Leblanc is their star attraction and they know he’s gone after this season. They won’t have a better chance to gun for it than right now, so they could be very active. Here’s some food for thought: Leblanc and Sean Couturier of Drummondville were linemates at Canada’s World Junior summer camp. If they end up back together for the tournament and strike up some chemistry, you have to think Pascal Vincent will be kicking the tires on that option.

Speaking of Drummondville, they’re in an interesting position themselves. They have the best all-around player in the league in Couturier, and need to decide what to do with him. With the very real possibility that he sticks in the NHL next year, do they sell him off, content with their 2009 title, and build for a run in a year or two? Or do they decide that going for it with Couturier on their side is too good to pass up? They’re having a great season, but that move (or non-move) will make or break it.

Another rumoured destination for Couturier has been Bathurst, mainly based on the fact that A) his father is the general manager and B) they’re in go-for-it mode. You have to think the elder Couturier is going to make a splash, if not by landing his son, then some other way. Olivier Roy is unlikely to be back for his over-age season, and Bathurst didn’t go nuts with trades in the summer just to win a round or two. They need something (or two) to push them over the top.

The Brandon Gormley question is one that needs to be addressed in Moncton in short order. Though injured now, he’s arguably the best defenseman the QMJHL has to offer. This is only his age-18 season, but it’s a possibility that he lands a job in Phoenix full time come October. A quick look at the Coyotes shows Morris, Aucoin, Sauer, Ekman-Larsson and Schlemko under contract for next season, with Yandle and Lepisto scheduled to be RFAs and sure to be back. Does that only leave Gormley as a third pairing guy, or do they make a move to accommodate him if he really impresses? No doubt Danny Flynn will be having some good chats with Don Maloney in the coming days. Neil Hodge has a better breakdown on the Wildcats’ options if you’re interested.

Appropriate to wrap up with the Saint John Sea Dogs, as there are a ton of possibilities there. Like most teams sitting first overall at the break, they’re weighing their options for a run in the spring. But more than any other team, they’re looking to 2012 and their Memorial Cup aspirations, be they hosts or league champs. They already have an impressive group of youngsters that will be the core going forward, but the goaltending situation is one that may need to be dealt with. Do they take a crack at Gusse or Gibson in Chicoutimi to be their go-to guy, thus not using an over-age spot in goal next season? They could also use some grit on the lower lines. A guy like Philippe Paradis could be the answer, but he’s unlikely to be back next year and would be pricey. A poor-man’s option might be Pier-Antoine Dion in Cape Breton, who can chip in some offense while playing an in-your-face physical style, would be affordable, and would be back as an over-ager next season.

These are just a few of the many storylines that expect to unfold over the next two-and-a-half weeks. The landscape of the QMJHL will certainly be shifted once we all come down off our World Junior high, and it will make for an exciting finish to this year and a great precursor to the arrival of the Memorial Cup in 2012.

The Return

Well hello there. I’ve dusted off the ol’ blog for the first post in a long, long time. I’m hoping that this marks the end of my inactive (lazy) streak.

So first, I’ll tell you a bit about myself. I’m a 20-year old from Cape Breton, recently graduated from college and working full-time at a radio station in my hometown. The end goal here is to incorporate my two passions: broadcasting and hockey. How, and when, remains to be seen. I’ve donned the alias of everyone’s favourite Czech defenseman with a heart condition who put the Leafs in position to tie the last playoff game they played. Which was 6 years ago. Meaning I went through all of high school and college with no Leafs playoff games. Hold me.

Anyway, with the information I’ve given here and the things I’ve tweeted, it would take about 5 minutes to figure out who I am, not like I wouldn’t tell anyone who asked. The nickname is just to separate my (lacking to this point) blog-type things from my real work.

My hope is to post here regularly from now on, about anything hockey… my views on anything happening in the NHL to things that are going on in the QMJHL, which I plan to cover a lot this season. And to ensure that, I spent two hundy on an online package that gives me access to every Q game this season, plus playoffs and archives. There’s no motivator quite like spending a boatload of money on something.
So on the topic of the Q, I’ll throw out some predictions based on my limited knowledge. See, despite being tabbed by PPP to write a weekly CHL update because of my Q-League Leafs prospect tweets, I don’t really know the Q that well. I know the better players and teams, but not very in-depth. That will change this year. (PS: I likely won’t be contributing those CHL updates this season, unless the Leafs increase their number of Q prospects to one, as I know little about the OHL/WHL and certainly less than a number of other PPP contributors.)

These predictions are based on some knowledge of a few teams and then guesses, some educated and some not, on the rest. Enjoy.

Maritimes:

1. Saint John
2. Acadie-Bathurst
3. PEI
4. Moncton
5. Halifax
6. Cape Breton

Telus East:

1. Rimouski
2. Quebec
3. Lewiston
4. Chicoutimi
5. Vicoriaville
6. Baie-Comeau

Telus West:

1. Montreal
2. Drummondville
3. Gatineau
4. Shawinigan
5. Val-d’Or
6. Rouyn-Noranda

Anyone who knows the Q will probably look at these and think I’m on the crack. I’ve spent the last few weeks reading all I can about the league and my knowledge is still minimal, especially outside the Maritimes division. I wasn’t going to do predictions to save embarrassment, but I figured, what the hell. Sometimes with predictions, the less you know, the better. And hopefully this time next year I can make much more educated picks.

I’m inclined to think it will be Rouyn-Noranda and Cape Breton out of the playoffs this year. As for the champ? It’s a tough call between Saint John and Montreal. The Juniors have the best player in the league. Saint John has a great crop of talented kids but lost some firepower from last year. My gut is that the Sea Dogs rep the Q at the Memorial Cup. Even if they don’t, they ought to next year. If there’s any justice in this world, the 2012 Memorial Cup unfolds at Harbour Station. And if by chance they don’t get hosting duties, their team is positioned better than any other in the Q to win the championship next season.

From what I can tell, this is as good a year as any to get interested in the Q. One of the players projected as a potential first overall pick in June, Sean Couturier, plays for Drummondville. Montreal scored themselves the player who has to be the odds-on favourite for the league scoring title when they snagged Louis Leblanc from Harvard. The Saint John Sea Dogs boast four guys who will all be picked in the first two rounds of the draft, probably 2 or 3 in the first round, in Jonathan Huberdeau, Nathan Beaulieu, Tomas Jurco and Zack Phillips. And looking ahead to 2012, Halifax has a couple of potential high picks in Marty Frk and Luca Ciampini, both of whom scored their first Q-League goals tonight, about 30 seconds apart.

There are more great storylines this year than I can remember there ever being in the past. Maybe that’s because I didn’t pay enough attention to the Q before this year. That will change from now on.